According to Eurostat, Bulgaria recorded the highest total fertility rate in the European Union in 2023, with an average of 1.81 live births per woman. It was followed by France at 1.66 and Hungary at 1.55. On the other end of the spectrum, the lowest fertility rates were observed in Malta (1.06), Spain (1.12), and Lithuania (1.18). The total number of births in the EU dropped to 3.67 million in 2023, marking a 5.4% decline compared to 3.88 million in 2022. This represents the most significant annual decrease since 1961.Source of this news item
In 2023, Bulgaria's total fertility rate (TFR) reached 1.81 children per woman, positioning it as the highest among European Union (EU) member states. This development is particularly noteworthy given the broader context of declining birth rates across the EU, where the average TFR was 1.46 in 2022.
Understanding Total Fertility Rate
The total fertility rate represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime, based on current age-specific fertility rates. A TFR of approximately 2.1 is considered the replacement level, meaning the population size remains stable without accounting for migration. TFRs below this threshold indicate potential future population declines, while higher rates suggest potential growth.
Bulgaria's Demographic Landscape
Historically, Bulgaria has faced significant demographic challenges, including low birth rates and high emigration. The population peaked at nearly 9 million in the late 1980s but declined to approximately 6.8 million by 2023. This decline has been attributed to economic transitions, emigration, and previously low fertility rates.
Several elements may have contributed to the recent increase in Bulgaria's TFR:
- Government Policies: Bulgaria has implemented various family support measures, including financial incentives, parental leave policies, and childcare support, aiming to encourage higher birth rates.
- Cultural Factors: A resurgence in traditional values emphasizing family and parenthood may have influenced decisions to have more children.
- Economic Improvements: Economic stabilization and growth can lead to increased optimism and financial security, encouraging larger families.
Comparison with Other EU Countries
While Bulgaria's TFR has risen, many EU countries continue to experience declining birth rates. For instance, Germany's TFR fell to 1.35 in 2023, placing it among countries with "ultra-low" fertility rates. Similarly, the EU recorded a historic low of 3,665,000 births in 2023, a 5.5% decrease from the previous year.
Bulgaria's rising TFR may help mitigate some demographic challenges, such as population decline and aging. However, sustaining this trend is crucial, requiring continuous support for families, economic stability, and addressing emigration. For the EU, Bulgaria's experience could offer insights into effective strategies for boosting fertility rates amidst widespread demographic declines.
Bulgaria’s increasing fertility rate in 2023 could have significant implications for both domestic and international surrogacy and adoption
1. Impact on Domestic Adoption
- Fewer Children Available for Adoption: A higher fertility rate typically means more children are being raised within their biological families, reducing the number of children entering the adoption system. This could lead to a decline in available children for domestic adoption.
- Longer Wait Times for Prospective Adoptive Parents: As fewer children are placed for adoption, Bulgarian couples looking to adopt might experience longer waiting periods.
- Increased Focus on Family Welfare: The government may prioritize policies supporting biological families over adoption, providing financial aid, childcare benefits, and housing assistance to encourage parents to raise their children instead of placing them for adoption.
2. Impact on International Adoption
- Decline in International Adoptions: Bulgaria has been one of the main EU countries allowing international adoptions, particularly for children from orphanages. However, with a rising fertility rate and more children staying with their biological families, there could be fewer children eligible for international adoption.
- Stricter Adoption Criteria for Foreign Parents: If the number of children in the system decreases, Bulgaria may prioritize domestic adoptions, making it more difficult for international parents to adopt Bulgarian children.
3. Surrogacy in Bulgaria
- No Immediate Legal Changes: Surrogacy remains illegal in Bulgaria, and the rising fertility rate is unlikely to change the government’s stance in the short term. Bulgarian couples who seek surrogacy services continue to turn to countries where it is legal, such as Ukraine, Georgia, and the United States.
- Possible Decrease in Demand for Surrogacy Abroad: With improved fertility rates, fewer Bulgarian couples may seek surrogacy options internationally, as more are able to conceive naturally. However, those facing fertility challenges will still have to look abroad for surrogacy solutions.
4. Impact on Foster Care and Child Welfare Policies
- Shift in Government Priorities: A higher fertility rate might lead to more government investments in parental support, child welfare programs, and maternity care rather than adoption reform.
- Reduced Number of Institutionalized Children: As more children are raised by their biological families, the number of children in orphanages and foster care could decline, reshaping Bulgaria’s child welfare policies.
